UFC 294: Makhachev vs Volkanovski II
It's about damn time
I’m not going to lie. The past few blogs all I’ve been thinking about is UFC 294. I have been thirsting to discuss some high stake scraps ever since we began MMA On The Rise, and Saturday night exceeds my desire.
A titanic rematch is upon us, and it feels like it has been some time since we had a card like this. I’d probably go back to July when Poirier and Gaethje fought with Pereira and Blachowicz in the co-main.
To add fuel to the fire, you could argue the main event between Makhachev and Volkanovski is a generational clash. The first fight was billed as the decider for who is the pound for pound best fighter in the world. We came out of it without a clear verdict, and now we get to see it for the second time in the same year.
Forget 11 days notice, forget Jon Jones, this fight is as big if not bigger than the first one. Let’s just think about the rarity of this moment. In the past, when two pound for pound giants were only a weight class apart, the fight never materialized. GSP never fought Anderson, and Anderson never fought Jones. Khabib didn’t fight Usman, and Usman didn’t fight Adesanya.
The DC vs Stipe trilogy was legendary, but both men were older. Adesanya fought Blachowicz at a clear size disadvantage, and Blachowicz lost his next fight. When McGregor beat Alvarez, Alvarez had yet to defend his title.
Getting to see two of the most dominant champions fight at the height of their careers is unprecedented. Getting to see it twice in a year is downright bonkers. Going into the first fight, there were concerns over Volkanovski’s size and the fight was almost downplayed. Going into the rematch, we get to appreciate the magnitude of the moment albeit for 11 days.
So that’s what I plan on doing. This blog will attempt to capture the rarity of the legendary moment that awaits us on Saturday, and I may write a book when it’s all said and done.
In The News
One of the most exciting parts of a big fight week is hearing how the highest caliber fighters mentally prep themselves to enter battle with a winning mindset. Each fight presents a unique set of challenges, and in the case of UFC 294, one of the challenges is the last minute changeup in the two biggest fights.
Islam and Khamzat were preparing for different opponents with contrasting styles, and now need to adjust to their new opponents. Volkanovski and Usman need to quickly shift into fight mode.
You can see this dynamic in fighter interviews. On Wednesday, Volkanovski said that if the roles were reversed, Makhachev wouldn’t have taken the fight. Islam responded by saying that Volkanovski only took the fight because he has nothing to lose and wants money. He also added that if Volk had a belt on the line he wouldn’t have taken the fight.
Volk insisted that while the pressure is on Makhachev to win, he’s putting his legacy on the line by taking the rematch on short notice.
We see a similar psychology at play between Khamzat Chimaev and Kamaru Usman. Utimately, I believe that Volkanovski and Usman are both showing up expecting to win a fight, not collect a paycheck.
It’s also newsworthy to mention that if you ever wanted to smell like Khamzat Chimaev, here’s your chance.
Fight Predictions
Said Nurmagomedov vs Muin Gafurov
Said Nurmagomedov (not related to Khabib Nurmagomedov) has lit the UFC on fire since his debut in 2018. With an impressive 6-2 record, Nurmagomedov enters UFC 294 off only the second loss of his UFC tenure, coming at the hands of the extremely impressive Johnathan Martinez.
Considering his last name and Dagestan origins, it comes as a pleasant surprise that Nurmagomedov is known for his exemplary striking and not his grappling. He fights with unprecedented range for the bantamweight division, using an array of kicks to keep his opponents at bay.
Meanwhile, Muin Gafurov is 0-2 in the UFC, and has landed a tough draw as he looks to score his first UFC victory. Gafurov relies on his grappling to win fights, boasting an average of 2.50 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Unfortunately, you’d be hard pressed to find me a Dagestani fighter who doesn’t know how to grapple, and Nurmagomedov is no exception. Said is no slouch when the fight hits the canvas, and is technically superior in the striking department.
I’ll take Nurmagomedov by knockout.
Ikram Aliskerov vs Warlley Alves
Ikram Aliskerov enters his second UFC bout following a devastating KO of Phil Hawes in his debut that put the division on notice. Aliskerov’s only career loss is against someone named Khamzat Chimaev, and he is polished everywhere.
Warlley Alves is a UFC veteran with a record of 8-6 under the UFC banner. Alves is coming off a split decision loss to Nicolas Dalby, and enters as one of the largest underdogs on the entire card.
This is a veteran test for Aliskerov that I expect him to pass with flying colors. He is simply too skilled for Alves’ experience to play a significant factor, and I expect him to get a finish either by knockout or submission.
Definitely keep an eye on Aliskerov, as he is one of the most exciting prospects in the middleweight division.
Magomed Ankalaev vs Johnny Walker
What a career revival it’s been for Johnny Walker since he stopped smoking weed. Walker has won three straight against tough opponents in Ion Cutelaba, Paul Craig, and Anthony Smith, and demonstrated improved grappling and more calculated striking in each win.
Unfortunately for Walker, Magomed Ankalaev is one of the toughest fights in the division. After becoming a Paul Craig triangle choke victim in his UFC debut, Ankalaev has won nine straight. His last fight was for a title and resulted in a draw against Jan Blachowicz that pissed off the boss Dana White.
Ankalaev does not have any flaws in his game, showcasing phenomenal kickboxing and grappling in all of his victories. He’s a sizeable favorite, and it’s hard to see Walker beating him over the course of fifteen minutes barring a spectacular KO.
While I’d like to see the Johnny Walker train keep on chugging, I’m afraid his run stops here. Walker has learned to take a more risk-averse approach in the cage and Ankalaev has seen most of his fights against highly ranked opponents go to decision, so that’s what I’ll take.
Ankalaev by unanimous decision.
Kamaru Usman vs Khamzat Chimaev
Sweet baby Jesus. Thinking about this fight gives me the chills. My first thought is that it’s incredible how swiftly things change in MMA. If this fight was booked a little over a year ago before Usman lost to Edwards in the fifth round, Usman would have been the favorite.
Instead, he enters as a +250 underdog against the Chechen monster Khamzat Chimaev. There’s a few factors that play into this line, the most obvious being Usman accepting this fight on twelve days notice.
The second is that Usman has long been a ticking time bomb in regards to his longevity. He has spoken openly about his serious knee issues, and at age 36 following two losses that made him look mortal, there are some questions about where he stands physically.
The third factor is his opponent Khamzat Chimaev. The Khamzat hype train took off after he won two fights in two weeks at two different weight classes when he entered the UFC and only absorbed one significant strike in the process. He followed that pair of wins up with another, absolutely starching Gerald Meerschaert and ragdolling Li Jingliang.
Where it gets interesting is Khamzat’s fight against Gilbert Burns which was an absolute war. Although Chimaev fought like a wild man and likely could have taken less damage, Burns was the first opponent to neutralize his grappling.
Against Kamaru Usman, who has only been taken down once in his entire career, I don’t expect Khamzat to have the luxury of taking him down at will. Instead, I think we see this fight take place on the feet, where both men possess legitimate knockout power.
There’s been some talk about Kamaru Usman’s chin, which I think has spiraled out of control. Excluding the Leon Edward’s head kick that would have tranquilized a horse, Usman has only been wobbled on a few occasions and recovers as quickly as anyone in the sport.
He’s certainly more durable than Gilbert Burns who was able to survive a war with Khamzat. However, Usman has only been in two true wars on the feet, both against Colby Covington who possesses lackluster power. When matched up with a striker, Usman likes to resort to his clinch game which we saw against the likes of Jorge Masvidal and Leon Edwards.
Things get even more complex when we look at Usman’s fight against the only common opponent between these two, the aforementioned Gilbert Burns. I consider this Usman’s most impressive display of striking. Burns was having success early creating a dirty boxing scrap, and Usman was able to reset and win the fight with his jab, scoring a knockout victory.
If Chimaev tries to pressure Kamaru and force boxing exchanges, he may find himself second guessing that strategy once Usman dissects his timing. We need to remember that Usman is one of the greatest fighters of the current generation, and should be respected as such.
Ultimately, it’s impossible to predict this fight given all the variables mentioned. From a betting perspective, I think Usman at +250 is fantastic value. When it comes down to who wins the fight, I can’t help but buy into the narrative that it’s Chimaev’s time and he’ll find a way to get the job done against the former champion.
I’ll be bold here and take Chimaev by knockout, but I won’t be placing any bets on this one.
Islam Makhachev vs Alexander Volkanovski
This is the big one. I already set up the stakes in the intro, so let’s dive right into it.
In the first fight, my initial takeaway was that Islam’s striking was better than expected and Volkanovski’s grappling was better than expected. Makhachev’s striking isn’t flashy, but it’s technical and to the point. Don’t expect Volkanovski to mount much offensive grappling, but expect him to hold his own.
Let’s start with the striking. Volkanovski was able to use his outstanding footwork to close distance and land on Makhachev in the first fight. He also enjoyed a clear speed advantage. Makhachev utilized his size and range to his advantage, catching Volk multiple times when he became overzealous entering range. Islam was also able to pick single shots that stopped Volkanovski in his tracks and prevented him from piecing combos together.
Just like all elite grapplers, the looming threat of the takedown also assists Islam in the striking realm.
When it comes to grappling, not many can compete with Makhachev. He’s a lifelong grappler who understands every nuance there is. Islam also doesn’t force takedowns, he sets them up and times them. Once you’re on the ground, getting up is never a guarantee. Islam was able to win rounds one and four based on control time alone, which is a huge advantage in a competitive fight.
For Volkanovski, his greatest attribute amongst many is his ability to adjust mid-fight. We saw this immediately after he got taken down in the first round, attempted a switch, and gave up his back. In the second round when Islam hit the same takedown, Volk immediately got his butt to the mat, scooted his hips out, got up, and landed a knee on the break.
We saw it again in the fifth round - Volkanovski recognized Islam’s takedown timing from the previous down, and landed the biggest blow of the night that saw Islam retreat to his back. Volkanovski’s tremendous ability to recognize patterns helps him greatly, because Islam has to be extremely careful about utilizing the same grappling entries twice.
Both of these men are incredible fighters with very few weaknesses. At a size parity, I may argue Volkanovski is slightly more well-rounded, but that doesn’t matter.
Unfortunately, with such a close matchup we need to examine each and every factor, and the big one here is Volkanovski not having a full fight camp.
The reason I’m worried about Volk is not so much cardio, but more so that he didn’t get a full six to eight weeks of drilling takedown defense and defensive grappling scenarios like he did going into the first fight. He needs to be extremely sharp in those scenarios to prevent Islam from controlling the fight with his grappling. If his grappling is just a little off, it can cost him a round.
Like I said, I fully expect Volk to be ready to go five hard rounds, however in the first fight cardio was one of his advantages. If he enters with less of a gas tank then usual, he can’t bank on having a stamina advantage late into the fight.
I also don’t love Volkanovski’s “go for broke” approach he teased in his interviews this week. He said while he can go five rounds, he’s going to go at Islam with less respect and expects to finish him. Not to say Volk will be reckless, but being even a little bit overly aggressive on the feet will cost you against Makhachev, as we saw in his fight against Oliveira. Islam also caught Volk a couple times when he stayed in range too long in their first fight.
Unless if Volk is able create some early drama, I have to favor Islam in this rematch. I’ll take him to win by decision.
Signing Off
Saturday should be fun…
